Winner
Donald J. Trump wins the Iowa Republican caucus.
Race called by The Associated Press.
Latest results from 49m ago
>95% of votes in
Republican Caucus race called
| Candidate | Votes
|
Percent
|
Chart showing percent
|
Delegates
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Donald J. Trump |
56,260 |
51.0%
|
20 |
|
|
Ron DeSantis |
23,420 |
21.2%
|
8 |
|
|
Nikki Haley |
21,085 |
19.1%
|
7 |
|
|
Total reported |
110,298 | |||
95% of delegates
allocated (38
of 40)
Analysis from our reporters
Trump won Iowa by a record 30-point margin, denying clear momentum to DeSantis or Haley heading into New Hampshire. 2h ago
In Johnson County, Haley is ahead by one vote with all precincts in. Trump is now on track to win 98 of 99 counties. 2h ago
The AP has projected that DeSantis will finish second. We estimate he will wind up about 30 points behind Trump. 3h ago
JUMP TO FORECAST
↓
Our estimates show Trump on track to win all 99 of Iowa’s counties. In 2016, he won just 37. 3h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
There’s still vote left to be counted, but our estimates give DeSantis a >95 percent chance of taking second. 4h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
Our estimates were briefly incorrect around 10:25 p.m., due to errors in precinct-level results from the Iowa G.O.P. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our estimates, which become more confident over time, show DeSantis edging ahead of Haley in the race for second place. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our forecast shows Haley and DeSantis with the greatest chances of taking second place, but it’s still early. 5h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
The AP has called the race for Trump. Projections are made when other candidates no longer have a path to victory. 6h ago
The first results are coming in; leads can be misleading until an area has reported most of its votes. 6h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
The caucuses began at 8 p.m. Eastern time. We expect the first votes to be reported within the hour. 6h ago
Analysis from our reporters
Trump won Iowa by a record 30-point margin, denying clear momentum to DeSantis or Haley heading into New Hampshire. 2h ago
In Johnson County, Haley is ahead by one vote with all precincts in. Trump is now on track to win 98 of 99 counties. 2h ago
The AP has projected that DeSantis will finish second. We estimate he will wind up about 30 points behind Trump. 3h ago
JUMP TO FORECAST
↓
Our estimates show Trump on track to win all 99 of Iowa’s counties. In 2016, he won just 37. 3h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
There’s still vote left to be counted, but our estimates give DeSantis a >95 percent chance of taking second. 4h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
Our estimates were briefly incorrect around 10:25 p.m., due to errors in precinct-level results from the Iowa G.O.P. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our estimates, which become more confident over time, show DeSantis edging ahead of Haley in the race for second place. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our forecast shows Haley and DeSantis with the greatest chances of taking second place, but it’s still early. 5h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
The AP has called the race for Trump. Projections are made when other candidates no longer have a path to victory. 6h ago
The first results are coming in; leads can be misleading until an area has reported most of its votes. 6h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
The caucuses began at 8 p.m. Eastern time. We expect the first votes to be reported within the hour. 6h ago
Analysis from our reporters
Trump won Iowa by a record 30-point margin, denying clear momentum to DeSantis or Haley heading into New Hampshire. 2h ago
In Johnson County, Haley is ahead by one vote with all precincts in. Trump is now on track to win 98 of 99 counties. 2h ago
The AP has projected that DeSantis will finish second. We estimate he will wind up about 30 points behind Trump. 3h ago
JUMP TO FORECAST
↓
Our estimates show Trump on track to win all 99 of Iowa’s counties. In 2016, he won just 37. 3h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
There’s still vote left to be counted, but our estimates give DeSantis a >95 percent chance of taking second. 4h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
Our estimates were briefly incorrect around 10:25 p.m., due to errors in precinct-level results from the Iowa G.O.P. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our estimates, which become more confident over time, show DeSantis edging ahead of Haley in the race for second place. 4h ago
JUMP TO CHART
↓
Our forecast shows Haley and DeSantis with the greatest chances of taking second place, but it’s still early. 5h ago
JUMP TO NEEDLE
↓
The AP has called the race for Trump. Projections are made when other candidates no longer have a path to victory. 6h ago
The first results are coming in; leads can be misleading until an area has reported most of its votes. 6h ago
JUMP TO MAP
↓
The caucuses began at 8 p.m. Eastern time. We expect the first votes to be reported within the hour. 6h ago
Votes reported
Estimated votes remaining
We stopped updating our forecast at 11:55 p.m. Eastern on Jan. 15. These graphics and estimates are now showing archived data as of that time.
| County | Trump |
DeSantis |
Haley |
Total votes |
Percent of votes in |
Estimated remaining votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muscatine |
54% |
18% |
20% |
1,083 | 77% | 350 |
| Cedar |
60% |
16% |
16% |
628 | 93% | <100 |
| Clinton |
70% |
11% |
13% |
1,631 | 94% | 100 |
| Tama |
58% |
20% |
12% |
580 | 94% | <100 |
| Polk |
38% |
27% |
26% |
17,433 | >95% | <900 |
| Linn |
43% |
24% |
25% |
6,999 | >95% | <300 |
| Scott |
49% |
18% |
24% |
5,807 | >95% | <300 |
| Dallas |
39% |
25% |
27% |
5,078 | >95% | <300 |
| Johnson |
35% |
21% |
36% |
3,578 | >95% | <100 |
| Story |
34% |
26% |
30% |
3,489 | >95% | <100 |
| Black Hawk |
52% |
16% |
22% |
3,412 | >95% | <100 |
| Pottawattamie |
61% |
13% |
18% |
2,901 | >95% | <100 |
| Woodbury |
57% |
22% |
13% |
2,764 | >95% | <100 |
| Dubuque |
48% |
23% |
20% |
2,606 | >95% | <100 |
| Warren |
51% |
27% |
15% |
2,519 | >95% | <100 |
| Sioux |
45% |
31% |
16% |
2,143 | >95% | <100 |
| Cerro Gordo |
60% |
15% |
18% |
1,580 | >95% | <100 |
| Marion |
46% |
29% |
17% |
1,519 | >95% | <100 |
| Jasper |
55% |
23% |
13% |
1,375 | >95% | <100 |
| Des Moines |
60% |
21% |
12% |
1,317 | >95% | <100 |
| Marshall |
53% |
24% |
15% |
1,232 | >95% | <100 |
| Plymouth |
64% |
18% |
11% |
1,113 | >95% | <100 |
| Benton |
60% |
22% |
10% |
1,094 | >95% | <100 |
| Boone |
46% |
28% |
16% |
1,087 | >95% | <100 |
| Webster |
66% |
16% |
9% |
981 | >95% | <100 |
| Mahaska |
53% |
29% |
9% |
946 | >95% | <100 |
| Bremer |
47% |
19% |
23% |
938 | >95% | <100 |
| Washington |
57% |
22% |
12% |
866 | >95% | <100 |
| Lee |
66% |
16% |
9% |
836 | >95% | <100 |
| Dickinson |
52% |
21% |
15% |
825 | >95% | <100 |
| Winneshiek |
54% |
17% |
19% |
770 | >95% | <100 |
| Jones |
56% |
19% |
15% |
762 | >95% | <100 |
| Mills |
59% |
20% |
17% |
761 | >95% | <100 |
| Madison |
57% |
20% |
15% |
753 | >95% | <100 |
| Wapello |
72% |
13% |
9% |
751 | >95% | <100 |
| Lyon |
59% |
28% |
7% |
727 | >95% | <100 |
| Hardin |
51% |
23% |
12% |
722 | >95% | <100 |
| Jackson |
72% |
10% |
11% |
692 | >95% | <100 |
| Henry |
65% |
18% |
12% |
672 | >95% | <100 |
| Clayton |
64% |
19% |
8% |
671 | >95% | <100 |
| Buchanan |
63% |
15% |
9% |
668 | >95% | <100 |
| Carroll |
53% |
20% |
19% |
666 | >95% | <100 |
| Clay |
59% |
18% |
13% |
660 | >95% | <100 |
| Iowa |
55% |
22% |
15% |
652 | >95% | <100 |
| Fayette |
57% |
16% |
18% |
649 | >95% | <100 |
| Harrison |
67% |
14% |
12% |
643 | >95% | <100 |
| Kossuth |
67% |
16% |
9% |
643 | >95% | <100 |
| Cass |
62% |
18% |
17% |
608 | >95% | <100 |
| Butler |
58% |
16% |
13% |
602 | >95% | <100 |
| Hamilton |
57% |
21% |
14% |
587 | >95% | <100 |
| Cherokee |
58% |
17% |
15% |
578 | >95% | <100 |
| Buena Vista |
62% |
15% |
15% |
577 | >95% | <100 |
| Grundy |
52% |
20% |
15% |
565 | >95% | <100 |
| Poweshiek |
52% |
23% |
15% |
565 | >95% | <100 |
| Allamakee |
67% |
16% |
11% |
528 | >95% | <100 |
| Delaware |
56% |
18% |
16% |
525 | >95% | <100 |
| O’Brien |
63% |
17% |
9% |
523 | >95% | <100 |
| Floyd |
66% |
17% |
11% |
521 | >95% | <100 |
| Appanoose |
72% |
12% |
7% |
519 | >95% | <100 |
| Hancock |
65% |
18% |
9% |
515 | >95% | <100 |
| Page |
64% |
15% |
16% |
513 | >95% | <100 |
| Shelby |
69% |
10% |
12% |
477 | >95% | <100 |
| Guthrie |
56% |
17% |
19% |
475 | >95% | <100 |
| Winnebago |
55% |
23% |
11% |
463 | >95% | <100 |
| Humboldt |
71% |
11% |
9% |
443 | >95% | <100 |
| Chickasaw |
58% |
17% |
14% |
433 | >95% | <100 |
| Jefferson |
70% |
12% |
9% |
433 | >95% | <100 |
| Franklin |
54% |
20% |
15% |
400 | >95% | <100 |
| Clarke |
64% |
15% |
13% |
385 | >95% | <100 |
| Crawford |
52% |
10% |
12% |
385 | >95% | <100 |
| Wright |
55% |
23% |
14% |
384 | >95% | <100 |
| Keokuk |
75% |
13% |
8% |
382 | >95% | <100 |
| Pocahontas |
67% |
10% |
11% |
380 | >95% | <100 |
| Greene |
56% |
18% |
16% |
371 | >95% | <100 |
| Mitchell |
50% |
20% |
15% |
357 | >95% | <100 |
| Howard |
64% |
10% |
17% |
348 | >95% | <100 |
| Union |
59% |
23% |
10% |
342 | >95% | <100 |
| Calhoun |
63% |
16% |
12% |
334 | >95% | <100 |
| Palo Alto |
57% |
21% |
12% |
332 | >95% | <100 |
| Lucas |
66% |
14% |
6% |
328 | >95% | <100 |
| Sac |
55% |
16% |
16% |
318 | >95% | <100 |
| Louisa |
71% |
18% |
9% |
310 | >95% | <100 |
| Montgomery |
57% |
10% |
22% |
309 | >95% | <100 |
| Van Buren |
71% |
17% |
6% |
296 | >95% | <100 |
| Worth |
67% |
12% |
10% |
290 | >95% | <100 |
| Emmet |
68% |
15% |
7% |
287 | >95% | <100 |
| Monona |
70% |
15% |
8% |
286 | >95% | <100 |
| Audubon |
64% |
16% |
10% |
277 | >95% | <100 |
| Davis |
67% |
16% |
11% |
263 | >95% | <100 |
| Ida |
51% |
16% |
21% |
258 | >95% | <100 |
| Wayne |
66% |
21% |
6% |
258 | >95% | <100 |
| Decatur |
61% |
19% |
14% |
252 | >95% | <100 |
| Monroe |
67% |
15% |
9% |
243 | >95% | <100 |
| Fremont |
68% |
12% |
15% |
240 | >95% | <100 |
| Adair |
51% |
28% |
9% |
237 | >95% | <100 |
| Ringgold |
59% |
29% |
7% |
221 | >95% | <100 |
| Osceola |
64% |
16% |
12% |
188 | >95% | <100 |
| Adams |
59% |
18% |
14% |
184 | >95% | <100 |
| Taylor |
69% |
16% |
9% |
181 | >95% | <100 |
We stopped updating our forecast at 11:55 p.m. Eastern on Jan. 15. These graphics and estimates are now showing archived data as of that time.
Estimating each candidate’s share of the final vote
This chart shows the range of estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical model becomes more confident.
NYT estimate
Reported vote share
Total expected vote
Note: Because of a technical issue with a data feed, the total expected vote was briefly incorrect for a few minutes around 10:25 p.m. Eastern.
What to expect
The Republican caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at hundreds of precinct locations across the state. Voters must appear in person (except for some overseas and military voters) and be registered with the party, though same-day registration is allowed.
Typically, voters indicate their preferences on blank sheets of paper. After the results are tallied, they are read aloud before being sent to the state party. In 2016, precincts began reporting results just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, and nearly all results were in by 12:50 a.m. Eastern time.
The state’s 40 delegates (just 1.6 percent of Republican delegates nationwide) will be allocated to candidates proportionally based on the final vote count. In pre-caucus polling, former president Donald J. Trump held an overwhelming lead, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley neck-and-neck behind him.
